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U.S. Auto Sales And Consumer Credit Hard To Reconcile

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was published on Monday, and coincided with the monthly Consumer Credit report , also published by the Fed. According to the loan officer survey, banks have tightened their lending standards both in the U.S. and in Europe, and the practice does not bode well for the U.S. economy.

Reports of weaker demand for C&I loans outnumbered reports of stronger demand in a reversal from recent quarters, particularly with respect to demand from large and middle-market firms. Reports of increased inquiries from potential business borrowers for new credit lines also decreased significantly and, for the first time in several quarters, were outnumbered by reports of decreased inquiries.

The consumer credit report delivered strong growth of $7.4 billion (seasonally adjusted), but, once again, the devil is in the details. Student loans continue to provide the bulk of the change, and without them consumer credit continues to fall. According to the Fed, the non-revolving credit category “includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured,” and do not include mortgages.

Common sense tells us that auto loans must account for a large percentage of total non-revolving credit. Thus, I prepared two charts to highlight the point.

The chart above shows total credit and the resulting trend when student loans are subtracted. The chart that follows isolates the non-revolving portion of the consumer credit series – the category under which student loans are counted – and then subtracts student loans from the non-revolving total.

The end result is similar, and while the not-seasonally adjusted total credit grew by $12.8 billion, student loans accounted for $14.3 billion – or a $1.5 billion contraction excluding student loans. This is nothing new, but there’s yet another wrinkle, because total non-revolving grew by $14.5 billion, or $200 million without student loans. Needless to say, revolving credit, or credit cards, contracted.

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